SEC Rivalry: Ole Miss Favored by 11.5 Points Against Auburn

The 2026 college football season reaches Week 9 as the No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels prepare to host the Auburn Tigers. This matchup features two Southeastern Conference teams attempting to recover from losses against ranked opponents earlier in the month.

The Rebels, currently 5-2 overall and 3-2 in conference play, lost 34-27 at Texas. The Tigers, 4-3 overall and 2-3 in conference play, fell 38-17 to LSU after defeating then-No. 1 Georgia in the previous week. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:45 p.m. ET on Halloween afternoon at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi.

Ole Miss will be without star running back Kewan Lacy, who dislocated his shoulder in the loss to Texas. His absence increases the load on quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who has accumulated 1,926 passing yards and 16 touchdowns. Auburn relies on dual-threat quarterback Byrum Brown, who has recorded 1,842 total yards. The Rebels have won the last two meetings in this series, breaking a six-game losing streak for Auburn.

Betting markets list Ole Miss as 11.5-point favorites. The over/under is set at 57.5 points. SportsLine’s projection model simulated the game 10,000 times and projected a combined total of 57 points. The model identifies the Under as the value play, hitting in 52% of simulations.

The data suggests both teams score more than they stop. Ole Miss has not scored fewer than 27 points in any game this season. However, the loss of Lacy may make the offense less versatile. Auburn has been held to 17 points or fewer in three of its seven games. In five SEC games this year, only one contest produced more than 51 points.

The model is on a 68-59 record on top-rated college football picks entering this week. That performance has returned nearly $400 for $100 players. The simulation indicates one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time, a detail available through the SportsLine platform.

This game marks the highest over/under for an Auburn contest this season. The Rebels aim to maintain their position in the national rankings, while the Tigers look to end their recent losing trend against conference opponents.