Higher Education Economics: Admissions Shifts as Student Supply Falls

The national supply of traditional-age college freshmen is projected to decline by 13 percent over the next 15 years. In response, institutions are restructuring their admissions processes to secure enrollment.

Colleges are moving away from a selective model toward a more accessible approach. Many are waiving application fees and offering financial incentives for campus visits. Public universities in 17 states now admit high school students who have not formally applied. More than 150 private colleges make direct admission offers to students who complete the Common App.

A survey by the ratings platform Niche found that two-thirds of admissions leaders struggled to meet enrollment targets in at least one of the last two years. Ninety-seven percent expect competition to increase. The proportion of high school graduates entering college dropped from 70 percent in 2016 to 63 percent in 2024, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Institutions are now involving faculty in the recruitment process. Skidmore College, Ohio Northern University, and Washington College have assigned professors to meet with prospective students. This strategy aims to create a sense of belonging that distinguishes these schools from others. Jess Ricker, Skidmore's vice president for enrollment, said the goal is to make students feel valued.

The ease of admission has increased significantly for the average applicant. The National Association for College Admission Counseling reports that nearly 8 in 10 first-year applicants to public colleges and 7 in 10 to private colleges are accepted. This compares to 68 percent and 65 percent respectively, about 10 years ago. Only 33 colleges in the United States admit 10 percent or fewer of their undergraduate applicants.

Yield rates have dropped sharply. Federal data shows yield declined from 32 percent in 2014 to 22 percent in 2024 at public institutions. At private, nonprofit colleges, yield fell from 24 percent to 18 percent over the same period. Colleges must admit roughly five times as many students as they need to fill their seats. Students apply to an average of more than seven schools, making it difficult for administrators to predict enrollment.

Skidmore College, which has 2,719 students, reported a 24 percent acceptance rate, down from 37 percent a decade ago. Its yield is 24 percent, which is above the national average. President Marc Conner noted that the college is still facing market headwinds. More than 300 admitted students requested personal visits with faculty or classes during the previous year. Psychology Department Chair Becca Johnson said one parent described the faculty outreach as the first contact from outside the admissions office, which influenced their decision.