Midterm Ad Spend Targets 70 House Districts in Final Week

Voters in 70 House districts face a surge of television and radio ads in the final days before the November 3 election. Both the Democratic and Republican parties are spending at least $100,000 in each of these competitive seats. The money is concentrated in places where the outcome could shift control of the chamber.

The spending pattern reflects a shift in strategy. Instead of a broad defensive war, candidates are targeting specific battlegrounds. Data from AdImpact shows that Republicans cut ad reservations in recent weeks in four districts that voted for opposing presidential and House candidates in 2024. Those districts include California’s 13th, New Jersey’s 9th, Washington’s 3rd, and Nebraska’s 2nd.

The political environment favors the party out of power. The Cook Political Report rates Democrats as favored in 220 seats. It lists 17 races as toss-ups and another 30 as competitive but leaning toward the Republicans. The current Republican hold on the House is 218 seats to 214. A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows Democrats leading by 10 points among registered voters and 8 points among likely voters on the generic ballot.

Money is following the most expensive races. Michigan’s 7th District and North Carolina’s 1st District are the top recipients, with more than $12 million planned for each. Florida’s 14th, 22nd, and 25th Districts also see heavy investment. New York’s 17th, Iowa’s 2nd, and Iowa’s 3rd Districts are also on the list. These areas mix deep-red communities with districts redrawn to include more conservative voters.

Redistricting played a major role in shaping these targets. A Supreme Court decision allowed parties to change map lines. Republicans shifted boundaries to add conservative voters to districts held by Democrats Marcy Kaptur, Don Davis, Shomari Figures, and Darren Soto. Democrats made similar moves in California against Republican James Gallagher, David Valadao, Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, and independent Kevin Kiley. Only Figures and Soto sit in districts currently rated as favoring Republicans.

Economic issues drive voter sentiment in these races. Cost of living remains the top concern. Rising gas prices, new tariffs, and the war in Iran weigh on the national mood. A record number of congressional retirement announcements has also changed the field. Many of the 70 high-spending districts voted for Donald Trump by an average of 9 points in 2024. Sixty of these districts are priorities for both the Democratic and Republican House campaign arms.

Not every targeted race will be close. Some districts listed as in play by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee gave Trump nearly 60% of the vote in 2024. Those seats have seen little advertising from either side. The final count of seats will depend on how the money deployed in the final week influences voters who have not yet cast their ballots.