Ad Spending Tops $10 Million in Key Florida and Michigan House Races

Voters in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, and New York face intense advertising campaigns in the final week of the 2026 midterm election. Ad spending data indicates the central question is not whether Democrats will win the House, but by how many seats.

An analysis by NPR found 70 House districts where both parties are investing at least six figures per district in final messaging. This includes more than $10 million each in toss-up races in Michigan, North Carolina, New York, and Florida. Seven-figure ad buys are also appearing in deep-red communities across Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.

The Cook Political Report rates Democrats as favored in 220 seats. It lists 17 districts as toss-ups and another 30 as potentially competitive but leaning Republican. In the current House, Republicans hold a narrow advantage of 218 to 214 seats.

Specific races in Michigan’s 7th District and North Carolina’s 1st District have seen the highest spending, with more than $12 million planned for each. Florida’s 14th, 22nd, and 25th Districts, New York’s 17th District, and Iowa’s 2nd and 3rd Districts also rank among the most expensive contests. These 70 high-spending races voted for former President Donald Trump by an average of nine points in the 2024 election.

Redistricting has added complexity to these races. Following a Supreme Court decision that weakened parts of the Voting Rights Act, Republicans shifted boundary lines to add conservative voters to districts held by Democrats. This affected seats held by Reps. Marcy Kaptur in Ohio, Don Davis in North Carolina, Shomari Figures in Alabama, and Darren Soto in Florida. Democrats made similar changes in California for districts held by Republicans.

Polling data from NPR, PBS News, and Marist shows Democrats leading by 10 points among registered voters and eight points among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot. Cost of living remains the top concern for voters, driven by rising gas prices, tariffs, and the ongoing war in Iran. A record number of congressional retirement announcements has also contributed to an anti-incumbency trend in primary elections.

Not every high-spending race will be close. Many of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s priority districts gave Trump closer to 60 percent of the vote in 2024 and have seen little ad spend from either party. However, 60 districts are listed as priorities by both House campaign arms, reflecting the impact of the Trump administration's unpopularity over the last year.

Four districts that split the 2024 presidential and House votes have seen Republicans slash ad reservations in recent weeks. These include seats held by Democrats Adam Gray in California, Nellie Pou in New Jersey, and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington, plus the seat of retiring Republican Don Bacon in Nebraska.