NBA Title Odds Collapse as Injury Wave Hits Top Contenders

The competitive balance in the NBA shifted dramatically within the first two weeks of the 2026-27 season. Preseason models projected that the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, and New York Knicks would dominate the league. ESPN's Basketball Power Index assigned those three teams a combined 50% championship probability before the season began. That figure has since fallen to 38%, a drop that reflects immediate on-court results and roster availability.

The Thunder suffered the most acute damage. Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace both suffered potentially season-ending injuries in the same game. Alex Caruso sprained his right ankle the following night. Chet Holmgren tore the patellar tendon in his right knee, sidelining him for at least two months. Oklahoma City played without four of its top six players in its last two games, losing by 24 points in Dallas and 21 in Houston. The team was outscored in all eight quarters across those defeats.

The Knicks and Spurs also stumbled. New York is 2-4, requiring large comebacks against Detroit and Chicago to secure its only two wins. San Antonio started 4-2 but struggled against top-tier competition, needing overtime to defeat the injury-ravaged Jazz. Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets lead the league with a 5-1 record, including victories over both Oklahoma City and San Antonio. The Philadelphia 76ers, Detroit Pistons, and Boston Celtics have a combined 16-3 start, a mark that exceeds the total number of losses recorded by the Knicks alone.

These early results have altered the landscape for the MVP race. Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who have finished first and second in voting for three consecutive years, are underperforming relative to their historical norms. Jokic currently ranks 24th in player efficiency rating among qualified players. Gilgeous-Alexander sits 16th. Jokic led the league in this metric for six straight seasons until this year.

Victor Wembanyama remains the favorite for the award based on current betting odds. However, he barely met the game-qualification threshold last season and missed out in 2024-25. If he falls short of 65 games again, the race could open up to candidates such as Luka Doncic, Cade Cunningham, or 19-year-old Cooper Flagg.

The league is currently debating the causes of the early injury cluster. Teams cite increased pace and physical stress as primary factors. The NBA has no immediate plans to alter the schedule or game length to reduce wear and tear. The next major deadline for in-season trades will occur later this year, with teams like Houston and Detroit potentially using their draft assets to target playoff contention.

The Thunder will theoretically improve when Caruso and Holmgren return, but they face a significant perimeter gap without Williams and Wallace. The Spurs and Knicks have time to round into form, but the early data suggests the title race is wider than projected. The 38% combined probability for the original three favorites assumes Wallace and Holmgren are active before the playoffs conclude.