640,000 young Israelis vote Tuesday as 12 Knesset seats hang in balance

Israel’s political balance tilts toward a new demographic as 640,000 first-time voters aged 18 to 22 head to the polls on Tuesday, October 27. The Israel Democracy Institute estimates this group represents nearly 10% of the total electorate. Their collective ballot has the potential to determine up to 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the IDI, expects high participation based on recent research. A May survey by Hoffman and colleagues found that between 80% and 95% of potential young Jewish and Arab voters said they would definitely or likely vote. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents intended to cast a ballot. This projection exceeds the 47% youth turnout recorded in the 2024 United States presidential election.

National security and the cost of living emerged as the top priorities for both Jewish and Arab respondents in IDI and Ynet/Yedioth Ahronoth polls. Hoffman attributed this focus to the instability experienced during these voters' adolescence, citing the pandemic, judicial reform protests, and the October 7 Hamas attack. A separate Ynet poll indicated 67% of young respondents were certain they would vote, with another 19% likely to participate.

A September 23 N12 poll showed 74% of young people identifying as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. If an election were held at that time, 16% would support Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and 14% would back Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. Hoffman noted that mock elections in high schools often skew toward the opposition, with students favoring Yashar and Beyachad over Likud and the far-right Religious Zionist party.

Individual voters in army preparation programs and reserve duty express mixed motivations. Yael Chernyvsky, 18, from Ramat Hasharon, plans to vote for the opposition change bloc to oust Netanyahu, whom she believes has been in power for two decades. Omer Gross from Jerusalem supports the Religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich for its stance in the West Bank, despite disagreeing with his actions in Gaza. Tomer Shiloh from Herzeliyah votes for the change bloc to lower the cost of living and enforce military service for ultra-Orthodox men.

Khalel Alaa Sabeh, an 18-year-old from Shef-Amra, will vote for an Arab party to address resource gaps and safety concerns in the Arab community. He urged his friends to vote to avoid four more years of what he considers poor governance. Sabeh stated he will not leave the country regardless of the outcome, calling it his home. The election follows a period where Jewish Israeli voters shifted rightward, though Hoffman argued military service does not automatically produce a nationalist stance among young men.