Florida early vote favors Democrats, but Republicans still favored to win

Florida voters have four days remaining before the November 3 general election. Early voting records show a surge in turnout among Democrats, yet political scientists still predict a Republican hold on the state.

Governor Ron DeSantis noted that voters are not appearing in Republican strongholds at their usual rates. He pointed to Polk County, which holds a 60,000-voter Republican advantage over Democrats, but is currently lagging in early vote totals. DeSantis suggested this shift could create a tighter race than previous cycles.

University of South Florida professor Susan MacManus explained that the early voting trend aligns with geographic voting habits. Rural areas in North Florida typically favor Republicans, while urban centers in South Florida and along the I-4 corridor lean Democratic. The current early vote reflects this urban-heavy participation.

University of Central Florida associate professor Aubrey Jewett argued that the final outcome will likely depend on election day turnout. She stated that Republicans have historically surged on the day itself, partly because former President Donald Trump has consistently criticized mail-in voting. Jewett said many Republican voters wait until November 3 to cast their ballots.

MacManus and Jewett both cited polling data showing the gubernatorial race between Ashley Jolly and Charlie Donalds remains tight. Some polls place the gap between the two candidates at one or two percentage points in Donalds' favor. Other polls show a wider margin, with differences ranging from seven to 10 percentage points.

Jewett described Florida as a red state with varying shades of intensity. She referenced the 2022 results, where DeSantis won reelection by 19 points and Donald Trump won by 13. She maintained that Florida remains a Republican state, though the margin of victory may shift.

Early voting continues in most counties through this weekend. In-person voting takes place on November 3.