Israel Election: No Bloc Holds Majority After Record Turnout

Israelis cast ballots in a parliamentary election on Tuesday that left the country without a clear governing majority. The final identity of the next prime minister remains undecided as vote counting proceeds across the nation. The high participation rate has intensified the pressure on political leaders to form a stable coalition despite deep ideological divisions.

Current tallies suggest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party will secure up to 28 seats. His alliance of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties is projected to fall short of the 61 seats required to command a majority. Gadi Eisenkot, former army chief and head of the Yashar party, is tracking for second place with approximately 22 seats. His broader change bloc is estimated at roughly 47 seats, also below the threshold for independent governance.

Arab parties are on pace to win at least 17 combined seats. Both major blocs stated during the campaign that they would exclude these parties from coalition talks. However, their numbers could be decisive in any effort to remove Netanyahu from power. Formal consultations to recommend a prime ministerial candidate to President Isaac Herzog are scheduled to begin next week.

Analysts have identified three primary paths to a government. The first involves the change bloc partnering with Arab parties. Most change bloc members pledged against such an alliance, with the exception of the Democrats led by Yair Golan. Mansour Abbas, leader of the Ra’am party, is again offering cooperation. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, noted the mathematical viability but warned the public is deeply unprepared for this arrangement. Tolerance for Islamist partners has decreased since the October 7, 2023, attacks.

A variation of this scenario would be a minority government supported externally by Arab factions. This coalition would include Yashar, B’Yachad, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Democrats. The group could reach 65 seats with outside backing. Avigdor Lieberman has rejected the idea, though Bar-Ilan University professor Jonathan Rynhold suggested he might agree if he were the prime minister. The Joint List may demand concessions that Eisenkot finds difficult to accept.

The second scenario is a unity government. Plesner believes serious negotiations for this arrangement are more likely. He envisions Netanyahu retaining his full bloc while luring in one change bloc party. Change bloc members would likely demand a centrist-leaning structure where Netanyahu drops a far-right or ultra-Orthodox party resistant to military draft bills. Many change bloc voters who campaigned for Netanyahu’s removal could feel betrayed by such an outcome.

The third possibility is a repeat election. Eisenkot described a new vote as a mistake given the high turnout. Election officials recorded a 77.7% participation rate, the highest since 1999. Plesner noted that another election could benefit Netanyahu, who would remain interim prime minister. Gideon Rahat, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said entrenched camps make new elections plausible. Plesner suggested it may take weeks or months to settle who becomes prime minister.